UK average mortgage rate exceeds 4.5% by December 2026
Resolves: UK average mortgage interest rate (Bank of England benchmark) exceeds 4.5% as reported by the Bank of England or equivalent authoritative source by 2026-12-31.
user-generated· macro
UK average mortgage rate exceeds 4.5% by December 2026
Market overview
The Bank of England's forecast of £45 monthly increases for refinancing borrowers implies a continued rise in mortgage rates beyond current levels. This prediction assumes no significant policy reversal or economic stabilization by year-end.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
UK average mortgage interest rate (Bank of England benchmark) exceeds 4.5% as reported by the Bank of England or equivalent authoritative source by 2026-12-31.
Source: user-generated
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