NATO Europe meets 5% GDP defense spending by 2035
Resolves: At least 60% of NATO European members (excluding U.S. and Canada) have met or exceeded the 5% GDP defense spending target as reported by NATO's Defense Expenditure Report.
user-generated· macro
NATO Europe meets 5% GDP defense spending by 2035
Market overview
By the end of 2028, at least 60% of NATO European members will have allocated 5% of GDP to defense spending, including core and broader security needs. This follows commitments made at The Hague summit in 2025 and reflects sustained political pressure from the U.S.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2028-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
At least 60% of NATO European members (excluding U.S. and Canada) have met or exceeded the 5% GDP defense spending target as reported by NATO's Defense Expenditure Report.
Source: user-generated
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