WTI crude oil hits $110/bbl by July 2026

Market overview

Trump’s stated willingness to escalate military action against Iran increases the risk of supply disruptions. With OPEC+ spare capacity already tight and U.S. gasoline inflation rising, markets will price in a supply shock if tensions escalate. Gasoline futures are already elevated, setting the stage for a breakout.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

72%

Source: user-generated

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