European defense spending will exceed 3% of GDP by 2028
Resolves: The combined defense spending of EU member states as a percentage of GDP exceeds 3% in calendar year 2028.
user-generated· macro
European defense spending will exceed 3% of GDP by 2028
Market overview
Rutte’s push for European defense autonomy amid Trump’s potential return will accelerate military budget increases. The EU’s strategic autonomy agenda and rising security concerns will drive spending beyond the 2% NATO target.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2028-01-01
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The combined defense spending of EU member states as a percentage of GDP exceeds 3% in calendar year 2028.
Source: user-generated
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