S&P 500 trades flat or down 1% if jobs grow below 85K

Market overview

JPMorgan does not explicitly outline this scenario, but the implied range suggests payrolls below 85,000 could signal weak growth or recession risks. This would likely pressure the S&P 500 lower, potentially by 1% or more, due to growth concerns.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
• Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
• US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
• Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
• AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
• U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
• Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →