S&P 500 volatility rises above 20 by Dec 31
Resolves: VIX closes above 20 on any trading day between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.
user-generated· macro
S&P 500 volatility rises above 20 by Dec 31
Market overview
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will exceed 20 before December 31, 2026, driven by Warsh's policy shifts.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
VIX closes above 20 on any trading day between 2026-08-29 and 2026-12-31.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…