Chile’s 2027 fiscal deficit widens due to lower Codelco dividends
Resolves: Chile’s 2027 budget report confirms a fiscal deficit of at least 2.8% of GDP and attributes the increase to lower Codelco dividends in 2026.
user-generated· macro
Chile’s 2027 fiscal deficit widens due to lower Codelco dividends
Market overview
Lower-than-expected copper production and profits at Codelco will reduce dividends paid to Chile’s government by at least 15% in 2026, forcing a larger 2027 fiscal deficit. The deficit will exceed 2.8% of GDP as copper prices remain high but output declines.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2027-05-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Chile’s 2027 budget report confirms a fiscal deficit of at least 2.8% of GDP and attributes the increase to lower Codelco dividends in 2026.
Source: user-generated
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