Fed raises rates by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate (upper bound of the federal funds rate) by any amount between July 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
user-generated· macro
Fed raises rates by December 2026
Market overview
The resurgence of geopolitical risks with Iran is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures, compelling the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points before year-end. Market pricing currently discounts a lower probability of rate hikes due to recent dovish sentiment.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate (upper bound of the federal funds rate) by any amount between July 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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