Israel protests F-35 sale to Turkey without concessions by August 2027
Resolves: Israel publicly announces formal protests, sanctions, or conditions (e.g., U.S. security guarantees) tied to the F-35 sale to Turkey by August 31, 2027.
user-generated· geopolitics
Israel protests F-35 sale to Turkey without concessions by August 2027
Market overview
Israel is expected to escalate diplomatic pressure against the sale, citing regional balance concerns. Trump may respond with assurances or compensations to Israel, such as accelerated arms sales or security guarantees, to mitigate opposition.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 80%
- Closes
- 2027-08-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Israel publicly announces formal protests, sanctions, or conditions (e.g., U.S. security guarantees) tied to the F-35 sale to Turkey by August 31, 2027.
Source: user-generated
More geopolitics markets
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
- Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
- India and Japan sign joint defense pact by November 2026 — 75% Yes
- US-Colombia tariff dispute resolved by Q1 2027 — 60% Yes
- Strait of Hormuz sees increased military activity by July 31, 2026 — 80% Yes
- Russia resumes full military hardware display by 2026 Victory Day — 72% Yes
- JD Vance's Jewish outreach boosts GOP support — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…