Texas sales tax revenue falls below 80% by Q2 2027
Resolves: Sales and gross receipts taxes as a percentage of Texas state tax revenue fall below 80% for a single quarter as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
user-generated· macro
Texas sales tax revenue falls below 80% by Q2 2027
Market overview
Texas' state tax revenue reliance on sales and gross receipts taxes has exceeded 80% since 2025. Economic slowdowns in retail and tourism, coupled with rising costs, are likely to reduce sales tax collections by at least 6 percentage points by Q2 2027.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2027-06-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Sales and gross receipts taxes as a percentage of Texas state tax revenue fall below 80% for a single quarter as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: user-generated
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