Brent crude exceeds $95/bbl by October 2026

Market overview

Persistent Strait of Hormuz tensions and delayed de-escalation efforts will push Brent crude above $95 per barrel. Goldman’s survey reflects 70% of respondents expecting supply-side constraints to persist into Q3-Q4 2026.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

72%

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
• Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
• US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
• Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
• AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
• U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
• Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →