UAE diverts 35% of oil exports away from Hormuz by end-2026
Resolves: UAE oil export volumes via ADCOP and Fujairah exceed 35% of total crude exports, verified by UAE Ministry of Energy, ADNOC, or customs data by December 31, 2026.
user-generated· macro
UAE diverts 35% of oil exports away from Hormuz by end-2026
Market overview
The UAE will complete infrastructure upgrades to reroute 35% of its oil exports through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) and Fujairah export terminal by December 2026, reducing exposure to Hormuz Strait disruptions. New pipeline capacity and tanker traffic data will confirm the shift.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 80%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
UAE oil export volumes via ADCOP and Fujairah exceed 35% of total crude exports, verified by UAE Ministry of Energy, ADNOC, or customs data by December 31, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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