US Treasury 10-year yield rises above 4.5% by December 2026
user-generated· macro
US Treasury 10-year yield rises above 4.5% by December 2026
Market overview
Geopolitical uncertainty from the Trump-Xi summit and ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine will likely drive investors toward safe-haven assets like US Treasuries, pushing yields higher. A sustained rise above 4.5% would reflect heightened economic and geopolitical risk premiums.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
Source: user-generated
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