Colombia exports to U.S. drop 15% by Q4 2026 due to tariffs
Resolves: Colombia’s coffee exports to the U.S. (measured in 60kg bags) decline by at least 15% in Q4 2026 compared to Q4 2025, based on Colombian Coffee Federation data.
user-generated· macro
Colombia exports to U.S. drop 15% by Q4 2026 due to tariffs
Market overview
Colombia’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods are likely to reduce demand for U.S. imports, including machinery and technology, prompting Colombia to cut coffee exports to the U.S. market. This follows historical patterns of trade retaliation.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Colombia’s coffee exports to the U.S. (measured in 60kg bags) decline by at least 15% in Q4 2026 compared to Q4 2025, based on Colombian Coffee Federation data.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…