Fed hikes rates at least once by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark funds rate by at least 25 basis points between July 8, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
user-generated· macro
Fed hikes rates at least once by December 2026
Market overview
The Fed's June 2026 dot-plot grid showed a narrow tilt toward one rate hike this year, with many participants favoring a rate above the current 3.5%-3.75% range by year-end. Given persistent inflation trends and divided policymakers, the path of least resistance points to at least one hike.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark funds rate by at least 25 basis points between July 8, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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