U.S. inflation rate rises by 0.3 percentage points due to coffee supply shock
Resolves: U.S. CPI for the 12-month period ending December 2026 is at least 0.3 percentage points higher than the 12-month period ending June 2026, with coffee price increases cited as a contributing factor in Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis.
U.S. inflation rate rises by 0.3 percentage points due to coffee supp…
Market overview
The coffee supply shock resulting from the U.S.-Colombia tariff dispute will contribute to a measurable increase in U.S. inflation, raising the CPI by at least 0.3 percentage points by Q4 2026. This reflects the broader inflationary impact of global commodity price spikes.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-15
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
U.S. CPI for the 12-month period ending December 2026 is at least 0.3 percentage points higher than the 12-month period ending June 2026, with coffee price increases cited as a contributing factor in Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis.
Source: user-generated
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