Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25bps in 2026-Q4
Resolves: The Federal Reserve enacts a quarter-point interest rate hike between October 1 and December 31, 2026, as per its policy statements or meeting minutes.
user-generated· macro
Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25bps in 2026-Q4
Market overview
Chief Investment Officer Megan Horneman warns that equities may not price in a potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2026. With inflationary pressures persisting due to Middle East conflicts and oil volatility, the Fed is likely to act to curb inflation.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve enacts a quarter-point interest rate hike between October 1 and December 31, 2026, as per its policy statements or meeting minutes.
Source: user-generated
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