NATO allies increase defense spending by 15% by December 2026
Resolves: Combined defense spending of NATO's European members exceeds 2.5% of GDP by December 31, 2026, per official NATO reports.
user-generated· macro
NATO allies increase defense spending by 15% by December 2026
Market overview
Trump's aggressive stance at the NATO summit will force European allies to significantly boost defense spending to avoid further U.S. military reductions. The urgency of the situation will accelerate previously planned increases, with Germany, France, and Italy leading the push.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Combined defense spending of NATO's European members exceeds 2.5% of GDP by December 31, 2026, per official NATO reports.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…