UK mortgage approvals decline by 15% in 2026
Resolves: UK mortgage approvals (seasonally adjusted) for the calendar year 2026 are at least 15% lower than in 2025.
user-generated· macro
UK mortgage approvals decline by 15% in 2026
Market overview
Higher mortgage costs are expected to reduce new mortgage approvals by 15% in 2026 compared to 2025. This decline reflects reduced affordability and tighter lending conditions stemming from elevated interest rates.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
UK mortgage approvals (seasonally adjusted) for the calendar year 2026 are at least 15% lower than in 2025.
Source: user-generated
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