US unemployment rate rises by Q3 2026 due to Iran war energy shock
user-generated· macro
US unemployment rate rises by Q3 2026 due to Iran war energy shock
Market overview
The Iran war continues to disrupt global oil supply chains, pushing energy prices higher. By Q3 2026, the cumulative impact on business costs will force layoffs, increasing the unemployment rate from current levels to at least 4.2%.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…