Tech layoffs trigger 15% increase in U.S. unemployment by Mar 2027
Resolves: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports unemployment at least 15% higher than the 2026-Q2 level (assumed ~3.7%) by 2027-03-31.
user-generated· macro
Tech layoffs trigger 15% increase in U.S. unemployment by Mar 2027
Market overview
Goldman Sachs' projection of 9% of the U.S. labor force losing jobs to AI over a decade accelerates, with unemployment rising 15% above current levels by March 2027 due to AI-driven automation and cost-cutting measures in tech and adjacent sectors.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports unemployment at least 15% higher than the 2026-Q2 level (assumed ~3.7%) by 2027-03-31.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- Indonesia raises disaster recovery budget above $1.2B — 75% Yes
- Brazil's fiscal deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP by 2026-12-31 — 65% Yes
- Tech firms accelerate relocation from California to low-tax states by 2027 — 68% Yes
- UBS low volatility stock screen outperforms S&P 500 by 8% in H2 2026 — 68% Yes
- Russian fuel shortages persist and worsen through 2026-12-31 — 75% Yes
- Colombian coffee exports to U.S. decline by 15% by 2026 Q4 — 78% Yes
- Liberia's President Boakai increases funding for anti-drug operations — 75% Yes
- Microsoft emissions exceed 2023 levels by 30% by end-2026 — 80% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…