Russian fuel shortages persist and worsen through 2026-12-31
Resolves: Independent reports or government data indicate that fuel shortages (gasoline, diesel) persist with no improvement or worsen relative to the level observed in June-July 2026, as measured by retail fuel price spikes or reported supply disruptions.
Russian fuel shortages persist and worsen through 2026-12-31
Market overview
Russia will experience continued fuel shortages through the end of 2026 due to sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure. Putin's recent domestic fuel supply law and mobilization of students will prove insufficient to offset the decline in refining capacity.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Independent reports or government data indicate that fuel shortages (gasoline, diesel) persist with no improvement or worsen relative to the level observed in June-July 2026, as measured by retail fuel price spikes or reported supply disruptions.
Source: user-generated
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