Venezuela's GDP contracts by more than 10% in 2026
Resolves: Venezuela's GDP for 2026 (annualized) is reported by the IMF or World Bank to contract by 10% or more relative to 2025.
user-generated· macro
Venezuela's GDP contracts by more than 10% in 2026
Market overview
The 7.5-magnitude earthquake in June 2026 severely damaged critical infrastructure, including residential buildings, hospitals, and roads. Combined with ongoing economic instability, this will push Venezuela's GDP contraction beyond 10% for the year, exceeding initial IMF projections.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 78%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Venezuela's GDP for 2026 (annualized) is reported by the IMF or World Bank to contract by 10% or more relative to 2025.
Source: user-generated
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