Iran's oil exports to China increase by 15% by December 2026
Resolves: Iranian crude oil exports to China exceed the December 2025 monthly average by at least 15%, confirmed by customs data from Iran's National Oil Company and China's General Administration of Customs.
user-generated· macro
Iran's oil exports to China increase by 15% by December 2026
Market overview
Despite geopolitical tensions, Iran will boost oil exports to China by 15% by December 31, 2026, as Beijing exploits discounted Iranian crude and Tehran seeks economic leverage. This increase will be verified by customs data from both countries.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Iranian crude oil exports to China exceed the December 2025 monthly average by at least 15%, confirmed by customs data from Iran's National Oil Company and China's General Administration of Customs.
Source: user-generated
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