Average hourly earnings growth exceeds 3.5% by Q4 2026
Resolves: BLS data shows average hourly earnings growth of 3.6% or higher year-over-year in October, November, and December 2026
user-generated· macro
Average hourly earnings growth exceeds 3.5% by Q4 2026
Market overview
Lee's inflation outlook hinges on strong wage growth driven by labor shortages. With employers competing for scarce workers, average hourly earnings are projected to accelerate beyond 3.5% year-over-year in the final quarter of 2026.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
BLS data shows average hourly earnings growth of 3.6% or higher year-over-year in October, November, and December 2026
Source: user-generated
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