NATO members increase defense spending by 25% by Dec 2026
Resolves: NATO's official 2026 defense expenditure report shows combined European members' spending increased by at least 25% compared to 2025 levels.
user-generated· macro
NATO members increase defense spending by 25% by Dec 2026
Market overview
In response to Rutte's warning and perceived U.S. withdrawal risks, European NATO members accelerate defense spending increases announced in 2025. The EU's Strategic Compass and national budgets reflect a pivot toward self-reliance.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 80%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
NATO's official 2026 defense expenditure report shows combined European members' spending increased by at least 25% compared to 2025 levels.
Source: user-generated
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