Oil prices spike 15% within 30 days of a US-Iran ceasefire breakdown
Resolves: The price of Brent crude oil increases by 15% or more from the 30-day average prior to the ceasefire breakdown, measured within 30 days of the event.
user-generated· macro
Oil prices spike 15% within 30 days of a US-Iran ceasefire breakdown
Market overview
If the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations collapse or fail by the end of 2026, global oil prices will surge by at least 15% within 30 days due to renewed fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
- Closes
- 2027-01-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The price of Brent crude oil increases by 15% or more from the 30-day average prior to the ceasefire breakdown, measured within 30 days of the event.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…