Fed raises rates above 3.75% by December 2026
Resolves: Federal Reserve's effective federal funds rate exceeds 3.75% as of the December 2026 meeting outcome.
user-generated· macro
Fed raises rates above 3.75% by December 2026
Market overview
The FOMC minutes show a narrow tilt toward a rate hike in the dot plot, with 'many other participants' favoring a rate above the current 3.5%-3.75% range by year-end. Inflation trends and labor market data will likely drive a hawkish pivot.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 62%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Federal Reserve's effective federal funds rate exceeds 3.75% as of the December 2026 meeting outcome.
Source: user-generated
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