Qatar leads mediation success by December 2026
Resolves: A signed agreement or renewed MOU between the U.S. and Iran is announced between July 11, 2026, and December 31, 2026, with Qatar listed as a primary mediator in official statements from both sides.
user-generated· geopolitics
Qatar leads mediation success by December 2026
Market overview
Qatar's diplomatic leadership in the mediation process will result in a signed agreement or MOU between the U.S. and Iran by year-end. Pakistan and other mediators will formally endorse the deal, marking a significant regional diplomatic achievement.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
A signed agreement or renewed MOU between the U.S. and Iran is announced between July 11, 2026, and December 31, 2026, with Qatar listed as a primary mediator in official statements from both sides.
Source: user-generated
More geopolitics markets
- Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
- Maria Corina Machado enters Venezuela by Dec 31 2026 — 70% Yes
- Cuba's government collapses within 6 months if no invasion occurs — 60% Yes
- U.S. military blockade of Iranian vessels escalates before November elections — 75% Yes
- Cuban migration to the US increases by 15% in 2026 — 70% Yes
- US airstrikes on Houthis by January 2027 — 55% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…