S&P 500 gains over 1% if April jobs exceed 125,000

Market overview

JPMorgan assigns a 10% chance of nonfarm payrolls exceeding 125,000, which could signal economic overheating. Historically, such strong job growth has been bullish for equities as it reduces stagflation fears.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Source: user-generated

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