NATO members increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2027
Resolves: By March 31, 2027, a majority of NATO members (at least 16 of 32) publicly commit to or achieve defense spending of 5% of GDP.
user-generated· macro
NATO members increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2027
Market overview
Despite Trump's public criticism of NATO allies like Spain for failing to meet spending targets, the alliance will accelerate defense spending commitments to 5% of GDP by 2027. Increased geopolitical pressure from Russia and internal cohesion efforts will force members to meet or exceed the new target.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
By March 31, 2027, a majority of NATO members (at least 16 of 32) publicly commit to or achieve defense spending of 5% of GDP.
Source: user-generated
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