Fed rate cut in December 2026 lowers 10-year Treasury yield to 3.75%
Resolves: The effective federal funds rate is reduced to 4.25% or lower by the Federal Open Market Committee's December 2026 meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield closes 2026 at 3.75% or below.
user-generated· macro
Fed rate cut in December 2026 lowers 10-year Treasury yield to 3.75%
Market overview
The Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point rate cut in December 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.25%. This will drive the 10-year Treasury yield down to 3.75% by year-end 2026.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 58%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The effective federal funds rate is reduced to 4.25% or lower by the Federal Open Market Committee's December 2026 meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield closes 2026 at 3.75% or below.
Source: user-generated
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