Fed delivers second 25bps hike by December 2026
Resolves: Federal Reserve implements at least one additional 25 basis point interest rate increase between July 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026, beyond the hike referenced in the June meeting.
user-generated· macro
Fed delivers second 25bps hike by December 2026
Market overview
The release of June FOMC minutes on July 9, 2026, will highlight internal disagreement, with commentary from former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard indicating typical Fed behavior favors rate cycles. Markets currently price only one hike, but historical precedent suggests additional tightening.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Federal Reserve implements at least one additional 25 basis point interest rate increase between July 9, 2026, and December 31, 2026, beyond the hike referenced in the June meeting.
Source: user-generated
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