Fed cuts interest rates by at least 50bps by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate target by at least 50 basis points between July 6, 2026 and December 31, 2026
user-generated· macro
Fed cuts interest rates by at least 50bps by December 2026
Market overview
US service sector growth slowing while hiring accelerates indicates potential stagflationary pressures. Historically, such conditions prompt aggressive Fed easing. Markets are pricing minimal cuts, creating asymmetric risk.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate target by at least 50 basis points between July 6, 2026 and December 31, 2026
Source: user-generated
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