Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds rate before or on December 31, 2026.
user-generated· macro
Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates by December 2026
Market overview
Given the ongoing market discussions about economic slowdowns and inflation trends, the Federal Reserve is likely to adjust its monetary policy. A rate cut by December 2026 aligns with historical patterns of policy adjustments during similar economic conditions.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds rate before or on December 31, 2026.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…