Global air travel demand to Mexico drops below pre-pandemic levels by Q1 2027
Resolves: International air passenger arrivals to Mexico in Q1 2027 are at least 5% lower than the Q1 2019 total, as reported by Mexico's National Institute of Statistics (INEGI).
user-generated· macro
Global air travel demand to Mexico drops below pre-pandemic levels by…
Market overview
Despite the World Cup boost, international air travel demand to Mexico will fall below pre-pandemic (2019) levels by March 2027. Structural issues in Mexico's aviation sector and global economic headwinds are cited as primary drivers.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
International air passenger arrivals to Mexico in Q1 2027 are at least 5% lower than the Q1 2019 total, as reported by Mexico's National Institute of Statistics (INEGI).
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…