Susan Collins retains Senate seat in November 2026

With Platner withdrawing, Maine Democrats will struggle to unite behind a single replacement candidate, splitting the progressive and moderate vote. Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins benefits from a fragmented opposition in a state she has historically performed well in.

elections · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

68%

Closes

2026-11-03

More elections markets

• Reform UK gains more seats than Labour in 2028 general election — 60% Yes
• Jim Clyburn loses reelection bid in South Carolina's 6th district — 85% Yes
• Democrats replace Platner with candidate polling stronger than him — 72% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat with increased margin — 78% Yes
• Democrats will nominate a more electable candidate than Platner by August 2026 — 70% Yes
• Susan Collins leads her Democratic opponent by at least 5 points in Maine polls by October 2026 — 75% Yes
• Maine Democrats' nominating convention selects a replacement candidate by August 15, 2026 — 90% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat with 5+ point margin — 70% Yes

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