Susan Collins leads her Democratic opponent by at least 5 points in M…

Susan Collins retains a structural advantage in Maine, and Platner's exit removes a progressive challenger from the race. With a more moderate Democratic replacement likely, Collins is expected to consolidate support among independents and anti-progressive voters, maintaining a polling lead through the general election season.

elections · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-10-15

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• Reform UK gains more seats than Labour in 2028 general election — 60% Yes
• Jim Clyburn loses reelection bid in South Carolina's 6th district — 85% Yes
• Democrats replace Platner with candidate polling stronger than him — 72% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat with increased margin — 78% Yes
• Democrats will nominate a more electable candidate than Platner by August 2026 — 70% Yes
• Maine Democrats' nominating convention selects a replacement candidate by August 15, 2026 — 90% Yes
• Tennessee Democrats gain seats in 2026 midterms due to redistricting delay — 70% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat with 5+ point margin — 70% Yes

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