Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is at least 50 basis points lower on December 31, 2026, compared to its level on July 7, 2026.
user-generated· macro
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points by December 2026
Market overview
Elevated tech volatility and equity market stress may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance. Historical precedents from past market downturns suggest a rate cut of this magnitude could occur by year-end.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is at least 50 basis points lower on December 31, 2026, compared to its level on July 7, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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