UK mortgage arrears exceed 1.8% by 2027-Q4
Resolves: UK Finance or Bank of England data shows mortgage arrears rate of at least 1.8% for the quarter ending 2027-12-31
user-generated· macro
UK mortgage arrears exceed 1.8% by 2027-Q4
Market overview
The number of UK mortgage holders in arrears will surpass 1.8% of all mortgages by the end of Q4 2027, up from the current ~1.2%, due to higher repayment costs and reduced disposable income. This will trigger increased regulatory scrutiny and potential government intervention.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2027-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
UK Finance or Bank of England data shows mortgage arrears rate of at least 1.8% for the quarter ending 2027-12-31
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…