U.S. CPI exceeds 4% YoY by Q4 2026 due to Iran conflict

Market overview

The Consumer Price Index will rise above 4% year-over-year by December 2026 if a military conflict with Iran occurs, driven by oil supply disruptions and energy price spikes. Historical precedent from past geopolitical shocks suggests a 3-5 percentage point inflationary spike.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Source: user-generated

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