SEC prediction hub — AI markets from EDGAR filings

Predictagon reads SEC EDGAR on a schedule. It does not open a live connection to the Commission, and this page is not a tick-by-tick feed. Ingest pulls recent 8-K current reports, 10-Q and 10-K periodic reports, Form 4 insider transactions, 13F holdings, and S-1 registration statements. Each filing that is stored becomes one filing_reports row. The row keeps the form type, the issuer name, a ticker only when EDGAR gives a real symbol, the filing day, and a short summary when the document names an event.

The list above is a slice of that table: filings dated from the first day of the previous calendar month through the last day of the current month. Older filings stay in the catalogue and on their own pages. The heading uses that window as its denominator. The catalogued-filings figure is every non-news row stored so far, which is a larger set than the rows on this screen.

A stored filing is not a wager. After the row lands, Predictagon writes a few yes-or-no questions about what the document implies. A question might ask whether an announced deal closes, whether an executive change sticks, whether an offering prices in a stated range, or whether a later filing confirms a figure the 8-K only previewed. Each question carries a resolution date, usually within a few months, and it names the filing fact that can prove the answer. Those questions are the markets. They stay open until the date written on the question. Probabilities shown while a market is open are forecasts. They are not the SEC's numbers, and they are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security.

When the resolution date has passed, a daily pass compares the question with the EDGAR fact it named and records Yes or No on the market. That record is the resolution. It can lag the filing by a day or more, because this page waits for the next ingest and the next resolution pass. It does not update in the minute EDGAR accepts a document. The list updated line is the timestamp of the newest row in the list, and that same timestamp is the page's dateModified value.

If a filing's title and summary do not name a concrete event, the row shows the issuer, the form badge, and the filing day, and it leaves the event line blank. It does not fill the gap with a generic sentence about what that form type usually contains. Jurisdiction marks in an EDGAR name, such as /NEW/ or /DE/, identify a state or a "new" incorporation record. They are not ticker symbols, so they are not linked as stocks.