Oil prices surge above $120 per barrel by Q1 2027 due to Iran-U.S. tensions
Resolves: Brent crude oil price exceeds $120 per barrel at any point between October 1, 2026, and April 1, 2027.
user-generated· macro
Oil prices surge above $120 per barrel by Q1 2027 due to Iran-U.S. te…
Market overview
Escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. following the assassination of Iran's former supreme leader and subsequent threats lead to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced Iranian oil exports. This drives oil prices above $120 per barrel by the end of Q1 2027.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2027-04-01
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Brent crude oil price exceeds $120 per barrel at any point between October 1, 2026, and April 1, 2027.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- US AI hardware exports to China exceed $5 billion in 2026 — 55% Yes
- S&P 500 peaks by October 2026 before 10% correction — 70% Yes
- Virgin Media share of UK broadband market drops below 20% by March 2027 — 65% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- Nikkei 225 drops below 35,000 by June 2027 amid BoJ tightening — 60% Yes
- Venezuela's GDP contracts by more than 10% in 2026 — 78% Yes
- India’s GDP growth exceeds 7% in FY 2027 — 68% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…