Iran closes Strait of Hormuz for more than 30 days

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all ship traffic indefinitely following the U.S. airstrikes. If Iran maintains the closure beyond August 12, 2026, the prediction resolves YES. This would disrupt global oil shipping and raise maritime insurance costs.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-08-12

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