Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026?

This market is a complex event combining the conditions of the first two markets. It requires both a formal ceasefire framework to be signed in a major conflict zone by Q3 2026 AND global oil benchmarks to remain below $95 for the rest of the year.

Implied probability (Yes)

30%

Volume

$0