Will a new book detailing previously unreleased survivor testimonies or historical documents about the Cap Arcona sinking be published by a reputable academic or trade press by December 31, 2026?
Resolves: YES if a new non-fiction book is published by a recognized academic press (e.g., Oxford University Press, Cambridge University Press, Yale University Press) or a major trade publisher (e.g., Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster) that presents substantially new survivor testimonies or previously unreleased historical documents specifically about the Cap Arcona sinking by December 31, 2026. NO otherwise.
Will a new book detailing previously unreleased survivor testimonies…
Market overview
Historical events often see new scholarship emerge as archives open or new perspectives are gained. The 'remembering' aspect implies ongoing historical engagement. A new book with significant new primary source material could be published by a university press or a major non-fiction publisher.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 25%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if a new non-fiction book is published by a recognized academic press (e.g., Oxford University Press, Cambridge University Press, Yale University Press) or a major trade publisher (e.g., Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster) that presents substantially new survivor testimonies or previously unreleased historical documents specifically about the Cap Arcona sinking by December 31, 2026. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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