Newsom wins California gubernatorial election in 2026

Market overview

Governor Gavin Newsom is expected to secure re-election in the general election, leveraging his current popularity and name recognition. Barring a major scandal or unprecedented shift, his victory is highly probable.

event prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

80%

More event markets

• Scottish government orders Higher Maths exam review by November 2027 — 75% Yes
• Chuck Edwards resigns before probe concludes — 70% Yes
• Sudan overtakes Syria as top country for conflict-driven internal displacement — 85% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio-Qatar Deal Collapses Due to Geopolitical Risks — 60% Yes
• Kevin Kiley's petition fails to secure 218 signatures by end of 2026 — 65% Yes
• Frederica Wilson loses 2026 Florida primary bid — 62% Yes
• US Southwest faces record heatwave by May 18 2026 — 85% Yes
• Eurovision bans Israel for 2028 due to ongoing Gaza conflict — 55% Yes

Browse all event markets →