Green Party leadership challenge initiated by end of 2027

Market overview

The tax residency controversy and perceived lack of transparency could erode trust within the party, prompting a leadership challenge or resignation of Zack Polanski. Internal dissatisfaction and external pressure may force the party to address the issue publicly.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

62%

Closes

2027-12-31

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Kiggans appointed to federal position by end of 2026 — 55% Yes
• Keir Starmer survives leadership challenge by July 2028 — 55% Yes
• Wes Streeting resigns as Health Secretary before November 2028 — 55% Yes
• Keir Starmer resigns as UK Prime Minister by end of July 2028 — 75% Yes
• Labour MPs oust Keir Starmer within 30 days of King's Speech — 55% Yes
• Met Police Commissioner resigns over Levy case — 60% Yes
• Starmer will still face a leadership challenge by 2028 — 75% Yes
• Keir Starmer survives leadership challenge with over 55% MP support — 60% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →