Keir Starmer survives leadership challenge by July 2028

Market overview

Despite internal speculation and Wes Streeting's ambitions, Keir Starmer retains enough support to fend off a challenge within the Labour Party by mid-July. The State Opening of Parliament and government agenda proceed without disruption from a leadership contest.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2028-12-31

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Wes Streeting will launch formal leadership challenge by July 12 — 75% Yes
• Keir Starmer resigns as UK PM before 2027 — 75% Yes
• Keir Starmer resigns as UK Labour leader before 2028 — 72% Yes
• Ro Khanna leads progressive caucus by year-end — 55% Yes
• Schiff endorses AOC for leadership role — 55% Yes
• Yvette Cooper will emerge as the surprise Labour leadership contender — 40% Yes
• Wes Streeting will successfully challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership — 55% Yes
• Collins appointed as next Federal Reserve Chair by Q4 2026 — 55% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →