Federal Reserve delays first rate cut to 2026-12-16 amid oil-driven i…

Market overview

Persistent oil price increases will keep headline inflation elevated, forcing the Fed to maintain restrictive policy. The June meeting minutes already indicate division, and escalating geopolitical risks will reinforce inaction on rate cuts through year-end.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

80%

Closes

2026-12-16

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